Mark,
Thanks again for expanding my interest in your postings.
The Media’s Misinterpretation of Statistics
Scientific research and the media go hand in hand. Without one another, both are severely restricted. For researchers, what good is a ground-breaking discovery if you have no way to get your findings to the general public? The scientific community relies heavily upon the media for this reason.
Firstly let us discuss why are statistics important. Statistics quantify information, and make it more easily understood. They allow a higher level of detail to be portrayed, and add credibility to research. With this in mind, let us look at two statements.
1. Some university students drive to university.
2. On average, 50% of university students drive to university. **
Adding the percentage value transforms the statement from common sense, to something relevant and meaningful. Statistics are an invaluable component in scientific research, and one that must be given considerable thought.
**Disclaimer: This is purely for illustrative purposes, the actual number is likely to be different.
Statistics can be confusing however, and as such it is vital for them to be reported accurately. A complication is that the media will often not fully understand details of the research. Resultantly, it is important that research is presented both accurately, and at a level that can be understood.
This responsibility falls squarely upon the researcher. Given these requirements are fulfilled by researcher, accurate reporting statistics is the responsibility of the media. Journalists hold an important role in communicating to the public, and must ensure they present details accurately.
Often it is not the actual statistics that are debated, but the conclusions made from the research. Scientists are accustomed to making conclusions based on research, but this is a skill less practiced in journalism.
This is the case in the article “Can breastfeeding halt obesity – or is the media misreading the research?”.
A recent study found that 32 percent of babies are obese, a shocking statistic. The original article attributed this to a combination of bad food, and eating solids too early. Several media sources including MSNBC and AOL Health, came to the conclusion that mothers should breastfeed rather than use formula. Whilst the statistics were reported accurately, the resulting conclusions were anything but. Given that the general public is far more likely to see the article from the press than the original study, this is worrying. In this case, misinforming the general public on a large scale is the outcome – obviously undesirable. Or is it?
Political tacticians are not in search of scholarly truth or even simple accuracy. They are looking for ammunition to use in the information wars. Data, information, and knowledge do not have to be true to blast an opponent out of the water.
In my research on the topic, I came across the above quote. It introduces the concept that misreporting statistics or making incorrect conclusions may not be accidental. There are many situations where adjusting conclusions could be done deliberately for personal reasons. For example, if the owner of a newspaper had a family member who was the CEO of a fast food company. Directing the attention away from the bad food causing obesity in babies and using a scapegoat (baby formula) would be beneficial for the newspaper owner. Far-fetched? Maybe, but its definitely something to think about.
Misleading Statistics
Statistics, when used correctly, can be a good tool for looking at trends in large numbers and making correlations between different events. However, sometimes these statistics are misinterpreted, misanalyzed, or just plain wrong.
Examples of different types of ways to manipulate statistics is given in Misleading Statistics: faulty statistics, bad sampling, Unfair poll questions, statistics that are true but misleading, ranking statistics, qualifiers on statistics, and percentages. These are outlined below:
• Faulty statistics: Statistics can often be fabricated out of thin air. Fabricated statistics are harder to see through than fabricated statements, since statistics command more authority than simple statements.
For example, saying that "61% of all Americans are obese" seems less suspicious than saying "most Americans are obese."
• Bad sampling: Bad sampling is simply sampling too few people, or sampling people who are atypical of the general population. If a television show asks viewers to call in and give a response to a poll, the people who bother to telephone in, and more generally the people who are watching the show might be inclined to answer one way or the other.
• Unfair poll questions: Poll questions may be worded differently in order to create an impression on the voter.
An example from Misleading Statistics claims that there could be two poll questions, "Do you feel you should be taxed so some people can get paid for staying home and doing nothing?" and "Do you think the government should help people who are unable to find work?" Both questions deal with taxes, but the first question is more likely to get more "no" answers than the second question.
• Statistics that are true but misleading: Statisticians can always "select" the data they wish to present in order to mislead the readers. For example, in an election one candidate's supporter claimed that employment was up when their candidate was in office. The opposing party claimed that unemployment was up when their candidate was in often. Both statements were true, since the population had increased during the candidate's time in office, meaning that the number of both employed and unemployed people had risen.
• Ranking statistics: The problem with ranking statistics is that it is dependent on how you split up the items you are ranking. In an example from Misleading Statistics diabetes is listed as the third leading cause of death in the United States -- but is cancer considered one disease, or many diseases based on its nature (lung cancer, breast cancer, colon cancer, etc.)?
• Qualifiers on Statistics: By adding qualifiers to statistics, it makes them seem as if they are something they are not.
The brown bear is certainly a large animal, but not the largest in the world. However, if we say that the brown bear is the largest land predator in the world, then that statement is true, and it makes the brown bear's size seem more impressive.
• Percentages: Statisticians can switch between numbers and percentages based on which looks more impressive:
if a factory of 100,000 people fires 10,000 people, a newspaper might report that 10,000 people were fired. However, if a factory of 100 people fires 10 people, that same newspaper might report that 10% of all workers were fired.
Misleading Statistics also discusses how to avoid being misled by statistics. One strategy is to take a step back, and look at how the statistic could have been reworded or changed to make it seem misleading. Another strategy is to consider the group who is presenting the statistics: do they have a reason to be biased one way or another, or are they neutral?